How Elite Configurations Explain Shifts from Democracy to Authoritarian or Totalitarian Regimes: Turkey as a Case Study

Michael Gerlich

doi:10.4236/ojps.2021.112019

Abstract

Attempting to predicting the formation of particular types of governance structures has been one of the central tasks of sociologists and political scientists. John Higley and Michael Burton argued that the configuration of elite groups in a society is an important predictor of the governance structure that develops in that society. The Higley-Burton theory outlines several ways in which the configuration of elites can predict the transformation of governance structures, from authoritarian regimes to liberal democracies. In the current research, this previous theoretical work is extended by articulating a route by which societies can go the other way—from democracy to an authoritarian regime. Turkey is being used as a contemporary case study to show how shifts elite configurations in a democracy can lead to authoritarian regime. A five-step process for this transformation is outlined. The steps in this model for one route of moving from an unstable democracy towards autocracy or dictatorship can be summarized as follows: 1) Political success by one group or faction. 2) Establishment of an inner circle and consolidation of power. 3) Replacement of the inner circle with weaker members who can be controlled. 4) Self-isolation of the leader. 5) Government control of opposition and suppression of dissent.

Highlights

These analyses introduce us to various events and developments that allowed this political transition and changes in elite configuration, such as the dismantling of institutional checks on the executive power resting with the President, the erosion of differences between the ruling political party and state, governmental restrictions imposed on civic freedoms, and tilting the electoral environment to align it with the agendas of the ruling political party
This article sought to explain Turkey’s slide from a democratic into an authoritarian government and towards dictatorship in terms of the elite configurations and processes proposed by elite theorists (Higley & Burton, 1989, 2006)
The five-step model that describes the shift in elite configurations away from democracy and towards autocracy and dictatorship can be summarized: 1) Political success by one group or faction

Summary

Introduction

Higley and Burton’s (2006) conception of elite configurations and the transitions in configurations that can support liberal democracies is useful in that it helps to link what we know from the elite literature—that informal networks of powerful individuals exist and have influence on governance decisions (Wedel, 2009, 2017)—to how we understand the transitions to the various forms of governance It is especially useful in explaining how non-democratic forms of government shift towards democracy. The paper proposes a five-step model for the transition from an unstable democracy to an authoritarian regime and a dictatorship and uses Turkey to illustrate this process It proposes that first, in a democracy one elite group or faction obtains political success and establishes an inner circle and consolidates power. The leader increasingly tries to ensure control of the political opposition and suppresses dissent

The Influence and Function of Elites

Routes to Consensual Unity and Democracy

Settlement

Convergence

Colonial Origins

A Route to Power That Reinforces Instability

Countries at Risk of a Route to Instability

The Case Study of Turkey

Understanding Turkey’s Political Evolution

Findings

Conclusion and Implications