How does urbanization affect energy carbon emissions under the background of carbon neutrality?

Abstract

Global climate change caused by increasing carbon emissions has raised great concern. Urbanization is regarded as one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Studying the effect of urbanization process on carbon emissions is of great significance to realize sustainable development under the background of carbon neutrality. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1997 to 2019, this study investigates the dynamic relationship, driving mechanism, and trend prediction between urbanization and energy carbon emissions (ECEs) using the sliding T-test, kernel density estimation (KDE), quantile regression (QR) model, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This study found that there is a continuous increase in time series and three transitions occurred in 2003, 2006, and 2009, which are in line with the transition stage of China's social and economic development. The overall urbanization rates in 1997–2019 exhibited an increasing trend temporally, and a spatial trend of “high in the north and low in the south” and “high in the east and low in the west”. ECEs showed an obvious spatial distribution pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”. Areas with high annual increments were mainly concentrated in the northern areas of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shandong, with annual increments of 39.35 × 104 t, 66.78 × 104 t, 44.54 × 104 t, respectively. Overall, urbanization (U) has an obvious positive influence on ECEs at a 1% significance level, and the influence is more significant in high quantile provincial units relative to low and middle quantile provincial units. Energy Intensity (EI), Energy Structure (ES), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), all exert a positive influence on ECEs at a 1% significance level. In the next 20 years, ECEs would present an inverted “U” shaped trend and can be expected to peak in 2036 in natural situation, it is necessary to implement low carbon emission reduction measures. The findings can provide a new reference for urban sustainable development in China.