How does uncertainty impact opportunity development in internationalization?

Abstract

The features of the internationalization of emerging market multinational companies (EMNCs) create a laboratory for extending theory. In this paper, we argue that a high level of asymmetry between prior knowledge and a non-incremental commitment, such as an acquisition, lies at the core of understanding these types of internationalization processes. Our proposed theoretical view is that while some uncertainties in opportunity development are known to the firms and can be managed by available knowledge, disruptive commitments can result in complexes of unstable and unilineal dynamics that bring about unexpected – and hence unforeseeable – uncertainties. These uncertainties may be a source of future unintended consequences that will have an impact on the firm as the internationalization process unfolds. This view is used for analysis of a longitudinal case study concerning the acquisition of a Swedish firm, Vargön Alloys, by the Turkish corporation Yildirim Group, focusing on the opportunity discovery and exploitation period between 2008 and 2013. By dividing uncertainty into two types (foreseeable and unforeseeable) and analysing the hidden problems that emerged after the sudden fusion of the two networks, the study nuances understanding of the emergent and non-orderly nature of the internationalization process as it unfolds. From a process point of view, the study may aid deeper understanding of complications when discovering and exploiting opportunities.