How does transfer duty relates to housing demand in the city of Johannesburg, South Africa?

Cities in developing countries are growing at extraordinary rates, often compressing into decades the urbanization process that has taken centuries in developed countries. In coping with this growth, public authorities have devised a wide range of policy instruments to influence the rate and character of city expansion, to meet the needs of people for shelter and urban services, and to allocate resources in ways that redistribute both the costs and benefits of urban growth. Ideally, such policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behavior of urban markets; in fact, little information on market behavior is available to the policymakers of developing countries. Such basic information is needed for improved project design and, even more important, for improved sector-wide policies. This paper reports on research conducted at the World Bank to increase understanding of developing country housing markets; in particular, of housing-demand behavior. While the overall project examines both the demand for housing characteristics' and the demand for housing as a composite good, this paper addresses only the latter. The objectives of this paper are (1) to review briefly previous evidence on housing-demand parameters in developing countries; (2) to present new evidence on housing-demand parameters based on application of standardized models and comparable variable definitions in 16 cities in eight developing countries (Colombia, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, India, Jamaica, Korea, and the Philippines); and (3) to examine similarities and differences among cities in housing demand and, in a preliminary way, offer explanations for place-to-place differences. Limited comparisons are also made to two U.S. cities in order to begin comparison of developing and developed country market behavior.

Purpose One main result of residential crimes is the sub-optimal allocation of homeownership, as demand and price of residential property respond accordingly. Since crime is a neighbourhood phenomenon, this study aims to examine how different residential crime levels are associated with price of property in a densely populated municipality in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The semi-log hedonic pricing model estimated with the least squares method was employed to test the difference between non-violent (burglary) and violent (robbery) crimes in their relationship with residential property prices. A combined total of 89,573 yearly property sales transactions and burglary and robbery at residential premises for five towns in the city of Johannesburg between 2010 and 2020 were used. Findings Burglary is strongly associated with house price compared to robbery. It is inversely related at about 0.85% in Randburg, 0.63% in Roodeport, 0.62% in Johannesburg, 0.61% in Soweto and 0.3% in Midrand. But robbery is positively associated with house prices. Despite differences in sample size and neighbourhood characteristics, the results do not corroborate for distinguishing among the towns as townships, urban and suburban areas on account of crime levels. Practical implications The findings are essential to inform policy development and planning in the housing market as well as security and criminal justice system. In so doing, the type of crime, combined crime and location of crime should be selectively dealt with. Originality/value This study is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first to examine, on a town-by-town basis, the link between residential-related crimes and residential property prices in the most densely populated province and municipality in South Africa.

The Dynamics of Population Aging and Housing Demand: An Empirical Analysis Based on Age Structure. Globally, population aging has emerged as an inescapable social phenomenon, particularly evident in China where this trend is even more pronounced. As the demographic structure continues to evolve, profound changes are taking place in the dynamics of housing market supply and demand, presenting both new challenges and opportunities for the development of the real estate market. By constructing theoretical models, this study explores the mechanisms through which changes in the age structure affect housing demand. Empirical analysis, supported by statistical data, reveals the specific transformations within the housing market under the backdrop of population aging. The findings indicate that not only does population aging directly reduce housing demand, but it also exerts far-reaching influences on the housing market indirectly through its impact on economic activities and policy orientations. This study aims to provide a scientific foundation for the formulation of relevant policies, thereby promoting the healthy development of the real estate market.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the demand for single family houses in Alabama urbanized areas, commonly referred to as metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds and estimates a housing demand model that incorporates both macroeconomic and housing‐related variables using a panel time series data for 1988‐2007. The study is different from past research, which mainly focuses on housing demand at the state or national level, by looking at the factors influencing demand for housing at the MSAs level.FindingsThe study finds that demand for new single family houses in Alabama MSAs is influenced by both national economic factors and local factors. Population growth and increased sale of existing houses increase demand for new single family houses in the MSAs. On the contrary, increased cost of building a new house, higher real mortgage interest rates and unemployment rates are found to reduce the demand for new houses.Originality/valueThis study is one of the few studies that focus on housing demand at the local level, particularly in the US housing market. Since demand for housing will always be local and therefore influenced mostly by local conditions, the result reveal unique dynamics that are specific to the MSAs.

We estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as disposable income, expected inflation and demographic pressures. Lending conditions also have a significant impact, especially through their effects on mortgage loans, and consequently on housing demand. Allowing short-run adjustment in house supply implies a weaker response of house prices to a change in the monetary stance or in banks’ deleveraging process. Finally, we find that since the mid-eighties house price developments in Italy have been broadly in line with the fundamentals; during the recent financial crisis, the worsening in credit supply conditions dampened house price dynamics, partly offsetting the positive stimulus provided by the easing of the monetary policy stance.

A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy

PurposeThis study aimed to establish the use of electronic learning centres in public libraries in the city of Johannesburg, which is under one of the biggest metropolitan municipalities in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative research approach was adopted, and questionnaires were used to collect primary data. The target population for this study was the entire users of the electronic learning centres and librarians in the public libraries within the city of Johannesburg.FindingsThe findings of this study revealed that there are different services, levels of awareness and training.Research limitations/implicationsThis study was limited to public libraries in the city of Johannesburg. Academic, special and mobile libraries were not included in this study because they were not open to the general public. Users who were not using the electronic learning centres were excluded from this study.Practical implicationsAdequate use and awareness of services of electronic learning centres in public libraries are instrumental in the satisfaction of users’ needs using the electronic learning centres. The suggestions of this study will be useful to decision makers and heads of the electronic learning centres on how to enhance the use of the electronic learning centres in the city of Johannesburg.Originality/valueThis paper establishes the use of electronic learning centres in public libraries in the city of Johannesburg, which is under one of the biggest metropolitan municipalities in South Africa.

The property boom in Ankara surrounded by urban arrangements, calls for complicated forecasting approaches so that stakeholders can benefit from logical decision-making. The researchers apply up-to-date time series analysis methodology to forecast the housing demand in the area. It implicates the historical sales of housing and economic indicators combined with demographic factors are the sources that develop a comprehensive model of forecasting which allows to explore and track the intrinsic dynamics of the housing market. The methodology, in turn, is the application of cutting-edge statistical models and machine learning algorithms in the process of capturing the complex trend that is explicit in the time series data. In terms of our approach, we will include seasonality as well as trend components as well as those external factors, which affect the level of houses' demands. The study also analyzes the outcomes caused by economic shocks, public policies, and urban planning on housing market equilibrium. The study carried out demand forecasting concerning the sale of houses in Turkey which is supported by the data. The study is based on TURKSTAT numbers on the number of houses sold within the year 2021 (S.O.D) by Turkish provinces that cover Ankara province where the data is retrieved from. Considering the sales of houses in Ankara from 2014-2018 as a basis, this study intends to find a numerical forecasting model that is most suited to the observed dataset and thus, determine the number of houses sold in Ankara in the year 2019 using this particular method. Output from time series analysis provides the developers and investors with significant information by the way of anticipating market fluctuations, improving their investment strategies, and choosing the right policies according to the markets' needs. Moreover, an accurate model needs to be analyzed through serious validation techniques to identify its authenticity in its real-life examples. This research is, at the same time, an attempt to make progress in the field of demand forecasting in the real estate market as well as an attempt to provide stakeholders working in Ankara Province with a comprehensive guide while moving through a changing housing market. The utilization of technology and a careful investigation of relevant factors lends this study credibility as well as makes it a necessary literary component for those pursuing a deeper comprehension of housing demand in the region.

The pursuit of access to better economic opportunities such as decent jobs has resulted in an astronomic influx of people into the inner city of Johannesburg, South Africa. As a result there is a high demand for rental housing. This presents an opportunity to make profit for those who leasepremises in order to generate an income. The demand for rental housing has arguably caused the escalation of rental prices, thereby causing a shortage of affordable rental housing in the city centre. The Rental Housing Act 50 of 1999 was enacted to resolve disputes that may arise from any unfair practice or matters affecting the relationship between the landlord and his tenants in respect of the lease contract. In particular, the Rental Housing Act seeks inter alia to “create mechanisms to promote the provision of rental-housing property; promote access to adequate housing through creating mechanisms to ensure the proper functioning of the rental-housing market [and] to lay down general principles governing conflict resolution in the rental-housing sector” (Preamble to the Rental Housing Act). In terms of the Rental Housing Act, the landlord or a tenant may approach the RentalHousing Tribunal and complain about an unfair practice (s 13 of the Rental Housing Act). The Rental Housing Act defines an unfair practice as “a practice unreasonably prejudicing the rights or interests of a tenant or a landlord” (s 1 of the Rental Housing Act). Where the Tribunal, at the conclusion of the hearing, is of the view that an unfair practice exists, it may rule that the exploitative rental be discontinued. The Tribunal may also make a determination about the amount of rental that must be paid by a tenant taking into account inter alia “the need for a realistic return on investment for investors in rental housing”. The argument presented in this case is that the applicants ought to have made up their case in the court of first instance and not at the appellate stage. The paper isdivided into nine sections. Section 2 provides an overview of the facts of the case, section 3 discusses the case before the High Court, section 4 discusses the case before the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA), section 5 discusses the case in the Constitutional Court, the issues, arguments, before the court, the findings and conclusions of the court. Section 6 evaluates the parties’ submissions in light of the Rental Housing Act, the Constitution, the Gauteng Unfair Practices Regulations, and the Prevention of Illegal Eviction from and Unlawful Occupation of Land Act (PIEA) (19 of 1998). Section 7 discusses the majority judgment. Section 8 discusses the minority judgment. Section 9 is a critique of both the minority and majority judgments. The conclusion made is that the applicants should stand or fall by the arguments contained in the founding documents.

Using zip code-level data and nonparametric estimation, I present eight stylized facts on the US housing market in the COVID-19 era. Some aggregate results are: (1) growth rate of median housing price during the four months (April-August 2020) since the Federal Reserve's unprecedented monetary easing has accelerated faster than any four-month period in the lead-up to the 2007-09 global financial crisis; (2) the increase in housing demand in response to lower mortgage interest rates displays a structural break since March 2020 (housing demand has increased by much more than before). These results indicate either the existence of 'fear of missing out' or COVID-induced fundamental changes in household behavior. In terms of distributional evidence, I find that the increase of housing demand seems more pronounced among the two ends of the income distribution, possibly reflecting relaxed liquidity constraints at the lower end and speculative demand at the higher end. I also find that the developments in housing price, demand, and supply since April 2020 are similar across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The paper highlights some potential unintended consequences of COVID-fighting policies and calls for further studies of the driving forces of the empirical findings.

Using zip code-level data and nonparametric estimation, I present eight stylized facts on the US housing market in the COVID-19 era. Some aggregate results are: (1) growth rate of median housing price during the four months (April-August 2020) since the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary easing has accelerated faster than any four-month period in the lead-up to the 2007-09 global financial crisis; (2) the increase in housing demand in response to lower mortgage interest rates displays a structural break since March 2020 (housing demand has increased by much more than before). These results indicate either the existence of “fear of missing out” or COVID-induced fundamental changes in household behavior. In terms of distributional evidence, I find that the increase of housing demand seems more pronounced among the two ends of the income distribution, possibly reflecting relaxed liquidity constraints at the lower end and speculative demand at the higher end. I also find that the developments in housing price, demand, and supply since April 2020 are similar across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The paper highlights some potential unintended consequences of COVID-fighting policies and calls for further studies of the driving forces of the empirical findings.

Using zip code-level data and nonparametric estimation, I present eight stylized facts and test three hypotheses on the COVID-era US housing market. Some results are: (1) growth rate of median housing price since the Fed’s monetary easing has accelerated faster than in the lead-up to global financial crisis; (2) the increase of housing demand seems more pronounced among the two ends of income distribution; (3) the housing market developments are strikingly similar across the country. These results highlight some potential unintended consequences of the COVID-era monetary easing, including driving up housing prices, weakening financial stability, and increasing wealth inequality.

This article explores the political-administrative interface in the context of South Africa’s coalition-led metropolitan municipalities. The political and administrative office bearers in a dominant political party system in South Africa have enjoyed center stage for the past 30 years. However, as the country gradually moves toward coalition politics in a multiparty democracy, the political-administrative discourse is unable to account for coalition politics in most of South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities. More importantly, political and administrative instability has become common in most of South Africa’s coalition-led metropolitan municipalities. This article transcends the dichotomous design by focusing on the lived experiences of political office bearers in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) and officials from the South African Local Government Association (SALGA). It offers a multifaceted contextual account of how coalition governments affect the political-administrative interface in the CoJ. This article recommends that scholars incorporate coalition politics into the overly simplistic two-dimensional political-administrative dichotomy design to improve coalition governance.

Ground-level ozone (O3) is an air pollutant of major health and environmental concern. The Johannesburg-Pretoria megacity in South Africa is the industrial and economical capital of the country with more than 10 million inhabitants experiencing poor air quality. In 2004, the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) began monitoring trace gases to assess ground-level O3 pollution. Here, we use CoJ’s publicly available air quality data, and present the first long-term data analysis of O3, nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), NOx and carbon monoxide (CO) in the City from 2004 to 2011 at three air quality monitoring sites: Buccleuch, Delta Park and Newtown. We quantified CoJ’s South African National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) exceedances for O3 and NO2, and demonstrate the City’s substantial O3 and NO2 air pollution problem. O3 mixing ratios peak in the early afternoon as expected due to photochemical production. To estimate O3 production rates, we summed O3 and NO2 diurnal profiles to obtain Ox mixing ratios at each site. This analysis provided insight into missing volatile organic compound (VOC) reactivity as well as primary NO2 emissions information necessary for developing tropospheric O3 pollution mitigation strategies. Furthermore, CoJ experiences high O3 mixing ratios on weekends due to lower NOx traffic emissions titrating the O3, thereby providing evidence of a VOC-limited regime for O3 production. Seasonal peak O3 occurs in the austral spring, a maximum that we link to increases in water (H2O) concentrations which in turn increases radical chemistry leading to O3. In addition, wintertime VOC and aerosol emissions from biomass burning over the winter add important precursors for O3 formation once radical chemistry is initiated during the first rain events in early spring. In all, this study will help inform air quality modelling and policy work on air pollutants in the City of Johannesburg, South Africa.

In a city like Shanghai, where one of the biggest and fastest growing of both the population and quantity of housing demand and supply in the world exists, the need to estimate the influence of population transition on housing demand becomes a vital task. This research presented the characteristics of Shanghai’s population transition in future and then housing demand in future is forecasted; finally, the strategy to control the housing market is presented. The results revealed that the population characteristics, the housing demand and the control strategy has interaction relationship with each other: the population characteristics and trend such as population quantity and structure lay in five points, which decides the housing demand in six ways and then it will decide the six strategies needed to control the housing market in Shanghai; while the latter ones will adapt to the variation of the former ones. Key words: Influence; Population transition; Housing demand and supply; Housing market; Shanghai