Abstract
Over half of all students enrolling at a particular university in KwaZulu-Natal fail to complete a degree. This article is wanting to determine to what extent the marks they obtain for English and Mathematics at school impact on their probability of graduation at this university. In addressing this problem, other student specific factors associated with their gender, race and the type of school they have attended need also to be properly accounted for. To provide answers for this study, the performance of 24 392 students enrolling at the university over the period 2004 to 2012 was followed until they graduated or dropped out from their studies. A structural equation model was fitted because it allows one to separate a direct effect from that of an indirect effect. Gender, race and school background were found to be very significant with males, Black Africans and students coming from a less privileged school background having a smaller probability associated with eventually graduating from this university. Males tend to perform better than females in Mathematics, with females performing better males in English. More importantly, however, a single percentage point increase in one’s mark for English increases the probability associated with graduating from this university far more than would be the case if their Mathematics mark were to increase by a single percentage point. In the light of these mediated results, perhaps this university should be directing their efforts more towards improving the English (rather than mathematical) literacy of students entering the university.
Highlights
Prior to 2008 students completing their school-leaving Grade 12 examinations in South Africa could take subjects at a higher or a standard grade level
By making use of a structural equation based methodology, this article allows each one of the above factors to have a direct effect on the probability associated with graduation; some of these factors exert an indirect effect on graduation that is being mediated by the marks that students are managing to obtain in English and Mathematics for their school-leaving examinations
Black Africans do not perform as well as nonBlack Africans, students coming from a quintile 5 background do better than students coming from a less privileged school background
Summary
Prior to 2008 students completing their school-leaving Grade 12 examinations in South Africa could take subjects at a higher or a standard grade level. Factors associated with the student such as their gender, race and age and the type of school they attended may have an impact on the probability associated with graduation from the university. By making use of a structural equation based methodology, this article allows each one of the above factors to have a direct effect on the probability associated with graduation; some of these factors (namely race, gender and type of school) exert an indirect effect on graduation that is being mediated by the marks that students are managing to obtain in English and Mathematics for their school-leaving examinations
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