HOW DOES THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AFFECT LATE WORKING LIFE? EUROPEAN EMPLOYMENT TRAJECTORIES FROM 2011 TO 2021

Abstract

Abstract Background One of the immediate impacts of the pandemic was the increase in unemployment and the reduction of working hours - especially among women, those with lower job security and in countries with a weaker social welfare system. The aging society is at further risk, which is already challenged by a growing shortage of workers and the rising costs of pensions. To understand the long-term consequences of COVID-19 for the aging workforce, this paper advances existing research by exploring from a life-course perspective how employment after the COVID-19 outbreak is anchored in larger employment histories (2011–2021). Methods Sequence-analyses are applied using retrospective life history data combined with both COVID-19 Surveys (2020–2021) from SHARE including respondents aged 50+. Using cluster-analyses, the resulting sequences are classified into six groups. By applying descriptive-analyses, I examine how these groups differ by gender, work quality, and country. Results Older workers – especially men – with continuous full-time employment histories are less frequently affected by unemployment and fewer working hours during COVID-19. Whereas those – especially women – with disruptive employment and part-time work histories are more frequently affected by unemployment after the outbreak of COVID-19. Respondents in countries characterized by social democratic welfare compared to liberal welfare regimes are less likely affected by unemployment during the pandemic. Discussion: The pandemic particularly puts older workers with disruptive employment histories at additional risk of labor market exit. Therefore policymakers need to address inequalities in earlier life to prevent long-term consequences of social inequality caused by the pandemic.