Abstract
ObjectivesTo model the risk of COVID-19 mortality in British care homes conditional on the community level risk.MethodsA two stage modeling process (“doubly latent”) which includes a Besag York Mollie model (BYM) and a Log Gaussian Cox Process. The BYM is adopted so as to estimate the community level risks. These are incorporated in the Log Gaussian Cox Process to estimate the impact of these risks on that in care homes.ResultsFor an increase in the risk at the community level, the number of COVID-19 related deaths in the associated care home would be increased by exp (0.833), 2. This is based on a simulated dataset. In the context of COVID-19 related deaths, this study has illustrated the estimation of the risk to care homes in the presence of background community risk. This approach will be useful in facilitating the identification of the most vulnerable care homes and in predicting risk to new care homes.ConclusionsThe modeling of two latent processes have been shown to be successfully facilitated by the use of the BYM and Log Gaussian Cox Process Models. Community COVID-19 risks impact on that of the care homes embedded in these communities.
Highlights
The modeling of two latent processes have been shown to be successfully facilitated by the use of the Besag York Mollie model (BYM) and Log Gaussian Cox Process Models
Community COVID-19 risks impact on that of the care homes embedded in these communities
These data can be classified as a marked point pattern where the “marks” in this case are the counts of COVID-19 related deaths
Summary
Community COVID-19 risk impact on that of care homes associated measure of uncertainty. In the UK, studies based on data from Wales, and separately from Scotland point to a statistically significant association between COVID-19 deaths in care homes and size of care home [5, 6]. The study based on Scottish data identified and reported on the transfer (or discharge) of patients from NHS hospitals to Scottish care homes. The study from Wales reveals that there is no evidence of a statistically significant association between the transfer of patients from hospitals to care homes. The Scottish study suggests that there is the presence of an association between the transfer of patients from hospitals to care homes. It was found that the risk of infection in care homes was impacted by low staff and separately, high occupancy
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