How Does the Asian Crisis Affect the Interdependencies Between Major Financial Markets in Asia and the US?

Abstract

Empirical studies support evidence of major financial markets affecting minor markets. During the Asian Crisis, however, major markets, such as the US and Japan, reacted to the problems in smaller markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore. In this paper we apply a VAR model to capture the changes in the dynamic relationship among stock markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and the US. A multivariate stochastic volatility model (SVM) is also utilized to study the correlations in volatility among these markets to determine the impacts of the Crisis. We find strong lead-effect of Hong Kong market returns over the US market returns during the Crisis. Our results also show strong overacting behavior among investors across these markets during the Crisis. We also find that the Crisis period was marked by higher volatilities and stronger spillover effects across these markets.