How does Shanghai crude oil futures affect top global oil companies: The role of multi-uncertainties

Abstract

The international influence of Shanghai crude oil futures (INE) has been increasing year by year. This study adopts the connectedness network method to construct a risk spillover network between INE and the top 20 global oil companies and measures the static characteristics and dynamic trends of return and risk spillovers. wMoreover, the core factors affecting the systemic risk are identified from the dimensions of crude oil implied volatility, geopolitical risk, US economic policy uncertainty, and climate concern. The results reveal that the overall connectedness between INE returns and global oil company stock price returns is high, with oil companies located in the Americas and at the upstream end of the chain experiencing greater spillovers in the system. Furthermore, INE is a net recipient of risk spillovers in the system, being subject to spillovers from most oil companies. In a dynamic scenario, the total system spillover index is susceptible to unexpected events, and there is asymmetry in the system risk spillover between INE and oil company returns. Meanwhile, crude oil implied volatility and geopolitical risk are the main influences on the systematic risk of INE and oil company returns.