How Does Population Shrinkage Affect Economic Resilience? A Case Study of Resource-Based Cities in Northeast China

Abstract

By constructing an index system, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of the economic resilience of 20 resource-based cities in northeast China after the financial crisis in 2008. On this basis, a mediation model was introduced to explore the mechanism of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience. The results show that: (a) from 2009 to 2019, the trend of the economic resilience of resource-based cities in northeast China was “ascending–descending–stable”. As time went by, the spatial difference of the economic resilience of resource-based cities gradually became obvious, indicating that the number of medium- and high-class cities was increasing. (b) By applying a correlation analysis, it was found that both a significant weak correlation and medium correlation existed between population shrinkage and economic resilience during the periods of 2011–2019 and 2013–2019. (c) Six mediation factors, namely industrial output, population consumption, resource dependence, urban innovation, cultural construction and environment quality, were chosen to apply the mediation model of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience. Among them, industrial output, population consumption, urban innovation, and cultural construction exerted a partial mediation effect on the process of population shrinkage affecting economic resilience, while the meditation effects of resource dependence and environment quality were not significant.