How does population aging affect China's energy consumption?

Abstract

In China, the proportion of elderly population is growing, influencing economic development and energy consumption. Our study investigates the relationship between population aging and energy consumption in China from 1997 to 2020, considering both short and long-term effects. The analysis employs the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation and explores the underlying mechanisms using mediating effects and threshold effects models. The PMG results reveal a negative long-term impact of population aging on energy consumption, indicating that a 1% increase in population aging leads to a 0.348% decrease in energy consumption. Additionally, GDP per capita and capital stock exhibit positive correlations with energy consumption, while the industrial structure shows a negative correlation. Technological progress is found to significantly increase energy consumption. The mechanism analysis suggests that the mediating role of scale and technological effects contributes to the negative effect of population aging on energy consumption. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship between population aging and energy consumption is observed, influenced by both population size and technological progress. The policy implications call for a comprehensive approach that addresses elderly population growth, enhances energy efficiency, and promotes sustainable technologies to ensure sustainable economic development.