How does Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry agglomeration affect carbon emission efficiency? Evidence from China.

Abstract

The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry takes on critical significance in promoting economic development and reducing carbon emissions. From the agglomeration perspective, how the ICT industry agglomeration affects carbon emission efficiency (CEE) in 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020 is innovatively investigated. We measured CEE using a dynamic directional distance function-based DEA model. Then, based on the research hypotheses, the specific impact and transmission mechanism of ICT industrial agglomeration on CEE are revealed using a spatial Dubin model and a threshold panel model. The results show that: (1) the ICT industry agglomeration exerts a remarkable inverted "U-shaped" effect on CEE. This non-linear effect is significant in the eastern and central regions, but not in the western region. (2) ICT industry agglomeration can affect CEE in neighboring regions. The spatial spillover effect shows an inverted "U-shaped" in the central region, positive in the western region, and insignificant in the eastern region. (3) when green technology innovation exceeds the threshold value (4.948), ICT industry agglomeration positively affects CEE, and when energy structure exceeds the threshold value (0.389), their marginal effects are significantly negative. The threshold effect also shows regional heterogeneity. This research proposes policy recommendations focusing on accelerating the ICT industry transformation, leveraging the spillover and technological advantages of agglomeration, and enhancing regional cooperation.