How does economic crisis impel emerging parties on the road to elections? The case of the Spanish Podemos and Ciudadanos

Abstract

This article examines the influence of economic crisis on voting preferences for the emerging Spanish parties (Podemos and Ciudadanos). We develop a multinomial model that tests their voting antecedents, and we find three results that may be relevant for the literature on the emergence of parties. First, a negative evaluation of the country’s economic situation has a major impact on votes for the two parties. Second, the perception of corruption also plays a crucial role in understanding support for the two emerging parties. And third, both the evaluation of the country’s economic situation and the perception of corruption interact to account for the emergence of both Podemos and Ciudadanos. We conclude that the emergence of new parties has an economic basis, but political factors – such as corruption – are not suppressed by this. Conversely, the two factors interact in order to finally give rise to the new parties.