How does decarbonization of the central heating industry affect employment? A spatiotemporal analysis from the perspective of urbanization

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of decarbonizing the central heating industry on employment from the perspective of new-type urbanization based on an innovative theoretical framework. Our average estimated CO2 emission intensity of the central heating industry in China at the city-level decreased from 54.51 tCO2/100 m2 in 2012 to 47.24 tCO2/100 m2 in 2019. Decarbonization of the central heating industry may promote total employment in 72 % of the Chinese cities with the median effect is 0.005 % for each 1 % reduction of the heating carbon intensity. However, the promotion effect may be inhibited by ecological and environmental urbanization, while strengthening through population and land, economic, social, and urban–rural integration dimensions of urbanization. Our findings can provide policy implications for carbon emission control and new-type urbanization planning in cities to achieve stable employment.