How does civil war begin? The role of escalatory processes

Abstract

Correlational and bargaining failure approaches to the eruption of civil war have neglected the role of escalatory processes, whose analysis has to date been largely limited to sociology. Escalating violence involves mechanisms that are self-reinforcing and have a propensity to transform the political landscape by reshaping group boundaries and political identities, and prompting the formation of new actors. This article shows that such mechanisms should be considered as analytically distinct from structural causes and bargaining failures. Escalatory processes—that is, the combinations of these mechanisms—are often crucial to the eruption of full-scale civil war. But their causal significance in civil war onset varies with regard to two criteria: the speed of violent escalation and the extent to which it transforms the actor landscape. These two criteria form the basis for a typology of escalations into civil war that distinguishes civil wars erupting in revolutionary situations from deliberate escalation by organized belligerents and from gradual escalation through rebel group formation and counterinsurgency. I illustrate each ideal type with a case study that serves as a plausibility probe. Accounting for escalatory processes allows to distinguish between contrasting roads to civil war, each of which privileges its own explanatory variables.