Abstract
BackgroundSevere air pollution in China threatens human health, and its negative impact decreases the urban settlement intentions of migrants in destination cities. We establish a comprehensive framework based on the push-pull migration model to investigate this phenomenon.MethodsWe employ a logistic model to analyze air pollution’s impact on the settlement intentions of the floating population based on the CMDS 2017 in China, combining the city-level socioeconomic variables with the individual-level variables.ResultsOur results show that the annual average concentration of PM2.5 increases by 1 unit and that the probability of migrants’ settlement intentions will decrease by 8.7%. Using a heterogeneity analysis, we find that the following migrant groups are more sensitive to air pollution: males, people over 30 years old, less educated people, and migrants with nonagricultural hukou. With every 1 unit increase in PM2.5, each group’s settlement intentions decrease by 13.2, 16.7, 16.9, and 12.6%, respectively.ConclusionsOur results are consistent with existing studies. This study discovers that both external environment and internal factors influence migrants’ settlement intentions. Specifically, the differences in population sizes, economic development levels, public services, infrastructure conditions, and environmental regulations between cities play a significant role in migration decisions. We also confirm heterogeneous sensitivities to air pollution of different migrant subgroups in terms of individual characteristics, family factors, migration features, social and economic attributes.
Highlights
Severe air pollution in China threatens human health, and its negative impact decreases the urban settlement intentions of migrants in destination cities
Influencing factors at the macro-level We found that when PM2.5, a major particle of smog, has a higher concentration level in the destination area than in the origin area, it is less likely that migrants will stay for long periods
We controlled for individual characteristics, namely, the education level, marital status, register, floating characteristics, occupation and public service factors of migrants
Summary
Our results show that the annual average concentration of PM2.5 increases by 1 unit and that the probability of migrants’ settlement intentions will decrease by 8.7%. With every 1 unit increase in PM2.5, each group’s settlement intentions decrease by 13.2, 16.7, 16.9, and 12.6%, respectively
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