How do states collapse? Towards a model of causal mechanisms

Abstract

ABSTRACT State collapse is a highly consequential event. But we know very little about the reasons why and how states lose their capacities of violence control, rule-making and taxation. In order to explore the underlying causal mechanisms, we use a nested analysis combining Qualitative Comparative Analysis and comparative process-tracing. While the mobilisation of armed opposition groups is a necessary condition for state collapse, it only works in concurrence with other conditions, namely political transitions, repression, factionalism, intra-elite rivalry and external interventions. Thus, the article presents a causal model that shows the alternative pathways leading to state collapse.