Abstract

With the urgency of climate change, and billions spent globally on renewable energy (RE) support policies, it is crucial to understand which policies are effective. Substantial scholarly research on RE deployment policies has been carried out over the last two decades, resulting in inconclusive findings regarding the effectiveness of mobilizing private finance. Here, we take a novel perspective and review 96 empirical studies concerning the impact of policies on two key investor decision metrics: investment risk and investment return. Only if both metrics correspond to the investors’ expectations are they willing to engage in RE projects. First, our rigorous literature review shows that effective policies address risk and return simultaneously. Second, we find that generic instrument design features, such as credibility and predictability (continuous evaluation and monitoring), considerably impact investment risk. A more focused analysis of the specific design elements of feed-in tariffs, auctions and renewable portfolio standards reveals that these instruments are most effective when they are designed in such a way that they reduce RE project risk while increasing return. We distil important implications for policymakers who aim to foster renewable energy and clean technologies more broadly.

Highlights

  • Most policymakers and scholars agree that keeping global warming ‘well below’ two degrees Celsius as specified by the Paris Agreement and the corresponding transition of the global economy will require large-scale private investment in renewable energy (RE) from a broad range of investors [1,2,3]

  • A more focused analysis of the specific design elements of feed-in tariffs, auctions and renewable portfolio standards reveals that these instruments are most effective when they are designed in such a way that they reduce RE project risk while increasing return

  • We focus on policy effectiveness, as existing evidence from empirical studies mainly refers to the question of whether policies lead to investment

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Summary

Introduction

Most policymakers and scholars agree that keeping global warming ‘well below’ two degrees Celsius as specified by the Paris Agreement and the corresponding transition of the global economy will require large-scale private investment in renewable energy (RE) from a broad range of investors [1,2,3]. Scholars embarked on a trajectory comparing effectiveness of individual instruments in different contexts [e.g. 12,13], as well as in large-scale country-level analyses [e.g. 14–16] These studies reveal inconclusive results regarding which instruments to use. While the decision metrics of investors are wellknown, systemic knowledge about the dedicated effect of RE policy on investors remains scarce [29,30,31,32] To address this gap, we focus on the following research question, analysing existing empirical evidence: How do RE support policies influence RE project investment risk and investment return?. We perform a review of the qualitative and quantitative empirical RE policy literature, focusing on the effect of 18 different instrument types on risk and return.

Altering the risk-return profile to catalyse RE investments
Policy instrument design
Methodology
Overview of the identified literature
Policy effectiveness through impact on risk and return of private investments
Fiscal and financial instruments
Market-based instruments
Regulatory instruments
Other instruments
Policy design as determining factor of policy effectiveness
Auction for PPAs
Synthesis of the findings
Implications for policy
Findings
Limitations and implications for research
Full Text
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