How do manufacturing exports react to the real exchange rate and foreign demand? The Chilean case

Abstract

AbstractHow do manufacturing exports react to the real exchange rate and to foreign demand? We investigate this question with a Chilean panel data spanning from 2003Q1 to 2016Q4, using publicly available data. In the long term, we find that exports strongly co‐integrate with external demand, whereas not with the level of the real exchange rate. The short‐run elasticities of manufacturing exports differ in size: (a) the elasticity of foreign demand—approximated by trading partners' activity aggregates—ranges between 0.8 and 1.4; and (b) the elasticity with respect to the bilateral real exchange rate is comprehended in the interval [0.4–0.6]. Core estimated elasticities pass usual robustness checks. The fall in manufacturing exports' growth in 2014–16 is consistent with a persistent slowdown in foreign demand, which has been partially offset by an average depreciation of the bilateral real exchange rate (with respect to destination countries of these exports). The transience of the effect of the real exchange rate is coherent with its exhibited stationarity and also consistent with its role of shock absorber.