How Do Local Markets Respond to Global Risk Factor Differently in Various Market Regimes? A Study of Country Exchange Traded Funds

Abstract

This paper explores how the returns of country exchange traded funds (ETFs) respond to global risk factors in different market regimes. We consider the ETFs for the U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Australia from May 30, 2000 to March 31, 2011. To answer this question, we use the Bayesian information criterion to select a regime switching model (RS) with six global risk factors and identify three market regimes - bull, transitory and bear markets. The empirical results show that both the returns of country ETFs and their sensitivities to the risk factors are highly regime dependent. First, the U.S. size and value factors are significant in explaining most of selected ETFs across regimes. More specifically, small capitalization is associated with lower returns for all country ETFs (except for Canada) in at least one market regime. High book-to-market ratio generates higher returns for all ETFs in most market regimes. Second, the global stock market return has a positive impact on the returns of all country ETFs. Third, all ETFs returns are negatively correlated with market volatility in bull and bear market regimes. Fourth, a stronger U.S. dollar generates a higher return for the U.S. ETF and lower returns for the other seven country ETFs across market regimes. Finally, the returns of Australia, Canada and U.K. ETFs, which invest heavily in materials, are positively correlated with commodity prices while other country ETF returns are negatively associated with these prices across market regimes.