Abstract
This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.
Highlights
The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic fluctuations and health outcomes in China from the perspective of infectious diseases
The results support the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations have a negative impact on the mortality of infectious diseases
This paper investigates the relationship between economic fluctuations and health outcomes in China from the perspective of infectious diseases
Summary
The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic fluctuations and health outcomes in China from the perspective of infectious diseases. Safety of human beings has always been threatened by infectious diseases [1], which are the leading cause of death worldwide accounting for a quarter to a third of all mortality [2]. The health burden of infectious diseases is believed to be becoming insignificant, because improvements in nutrition, sanitation, and public health policies have caused a steady decline in overall incidence and mortality [7, 8]. The outbreak of several epidemics of infectious diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), severe acute respiratory syndromes (SARS), highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), still has produced serious economic impacts and health security threats [4, 9].
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