How do coupled models represent the African Easterly Jets and their associated dynamics over Central Africa during the September–November rainy season?

Abstract

Climate models are vital to the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the Central African regions. Establishing how well models reproduce key processes is important to the confidence we attach to these tools. This study examines model representation of the September to November characteristics, such as location and intensity, of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) north and south in a sample of 16 commonly evaluated CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and in two reanalyses (ERA5 and MERRA2). The analysis evolves to assess key drivers of the AEJ from energetic interactions, the characteristics of mid-level highs and thermal lows and the nature of surface thermal heating. Over West Africa, several models miss the southeast-northwest orientation of the AEJ-N core, leading to a gap of around 60 in the location of the jet while most CMIP5 models also fail to locate AEJ-S over southern Central Africa. In general, the spread of simulated AEJ locations around reanalyses is larger for the CMIP5 sample compared to CMIP6 equivalent models, indicating improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in this 16 model subset. However, this improvement in some CMIP6 models (e.g. GISS-E2-1-G and MIROC6) is not related to a maximum surface meridional gradient in temperature. Most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimate the surface temperature gradient over AEJ-N region. As a first order diagnostic of the jet's acceleration, most coupled models better simulate the atmospheric energetic interactions over AEJ-N region that leads to its strong contribution to AEJ-N maintenance compared to AEJ-S. This study strengthens our understanding of the mid-level circulation over Central Africa by detecting gaps in the mechanisms maintaining the AEJ in coupled models and highlights processes that should be improved in future ensembles.