How do carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms and renewable portfolio standards affect renewable energy investment?

Abstract

In order to promote the low-carbon transformation, Chinese government plans to implement two policies in the power industry: carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms and renewable portfolio standards. However, whether their synergy can drive the development of Chinese renewable energy industry has become a key issue. Based on China’s renewable energy industry, this paper established an optimization model with the objective function for maximizing electricity company profits. The study further employed scenario analysis to design four policy scenarios: no-policy scenario, carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms scenario, renewable portfolio standards scenario and mixed scenario. The mentioned scenarios were used to explore the impact of various policy situations on electricity companies’ investment decisions, total carbon emissions, consumer surplus and social welfare when renewable energy, new conventional energy and conventional energy are available in the market. The research findings obtained thus showed that in terms of renewable energy promotion, mixed scenario is the best. Our results also showed that at the initial stage of China’s low-carbon transformation, the social welfare level under mixed scenario is the highest. The outlined findings provide some policy suggestions for promoting the rapid development of renewable energy and accelerating the low-carbon transformation with high quality.