Abstract
The influence of China’s family planning policies on fertility transition is widely acknowledged in research studies. However, little is known about how improvements in women’s education have shaped reproductive decisions of Chinese women across different family planning regimes, particularly at micro level. This study uses retrospective pooled birth history data from five consecutive population and family planning surveys collected over the period 1982–2006 to systematically examine the interrelationship between family planning policies and women’s education, and their interactive effect on the second and third birth transitions. We hypothesize that family planning policies had a differential influence on educational groups in reducing the transition to second and third births. The results from discrete time complementary log–log survival models provide strong evidence of differential reproductive behavior of education groups across time in China, and the simultaneous influence of women’s education and family planning policies in lowering risks to higher parities. The rates of progression to second and third births tend to be lower after the introduction of rigid family planning policies, and more importantly, the policy impact persisted even after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. The increase in women’s education overall had a depressing effect on transition to higher parities, and family planning policies implemented overtime have had differential effects on women from different educational groups. The findings show that both family planning policies and women’s education have been instrumental in shaping fertility behavior in China.
Highlights
Since the aim of the study was to examine the effect of Family planning policy (FPP) on the second and third birth transitions, we restricted our sample to participants who have had at least one child or two children
The foregoing analyses confirmed our hypothesis that family planning policies (FPP) implemented over time had differential influence on educational groups in reducing the risk to second and third birth transition
The rates of progression to second and third births tend to be lower after the introduction of rigid FPP, and more importantly, the policy impact persisted even after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors
Summary
The underlying pathways through which women’s education accelerates fertility decline in transitional and post-transitional societies have been widely researched (Behrman, 2015; Basu, 2002; Cleland, 2002; Cleland & Rodriguez, 1988; Cochrane, 1979; Drèze & Murthi, 2001; Jeffrey & Basu, 1996; Jejeebhoy, 1995; Martin & Juárez, 1995; Mason, 1987; Niu & Qi, 2019; Smith, 1989). Women’s education is an important socioeconomic marker and has been shown to have a measurable effect on reproductive decisions and fertility control, enabling women or couples to postpone marriage, space and limit births through the effective use of modern contraception (Bongaarts & Potter, 1983). The education effect on fertility appears more pronounced in countries with conducive family planning and healthcare policies and program interventions (Bongaarts, 1994). In Southeast and East Asian countries including South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand, investment in women’s education and effective family planning had a synergistic effect in accelerating economic development and reducing population growth (Bulatao, 1998; Robinson & Ross, 2007). The most populous countries—China and India, on the other hand, opted for intensified state-administered family planning programs over social interventions for controlling their burgeoning population growth
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