Abstract
BackgroundTo reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in its first wave, European governments have implemented successive measures to encourage social distancing. However, it remained unclear how effectively measures reduced the spread of the virus. We examined how the effective-contact rate (ECR), the mean number of daily contacts for an infectious individual to transmit the virus, among European citizens evolved during this wave over the period with implemented measures, disregarding a priori information on governmental measures.MethodsWe developed a data-oriented approach that is based on an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. Using the available data on the confirmed numbers of infections and hospitalizations, we first estimated the daily total number of infectious-, exposed- and susceptible individuals and subsequently estimated the ECR with an iterative Poisson regression model. We then compared change points in the daily ECRs to the moments of the governmental measures.ResultsThe change points in the daily ECRs were found to align with the implementation of governmental interventions. At the end of the considered time-window, we found similar ECRs for Italy (0.29), Spain (0.24), and Germany (0.27), while the ECR in the Netherlands (0.34), Belgium (0.35) and the UK (0.37) were somewhat higher. The highest ECR was found for Sweden (0.45).ConclusionsThere seemed to be an immediate effect of banning events and closing schools, typically among the first measures taken by the governments. The effect of additionally closing bars and restaurants seemed limited. For most countries a somewhat delayed effect of the full lockdown was observed, and the ECR after a full lockdown was not necessarily lower than an ECR after (only) a gathering ban.
Highlights
To reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in its first wave, European governments have implemented successive measures to encourage social distancing
When measures had an immediate effect on the effectivecontact rate (ECR), we expected to see that the times of change points coincided exactly with at least one of the measures
Due to the variability in the data, it is very likely that a change point was estimated just one day(s) after the real date, since daily ECRs that were similar in a period were merged to create the piece-wise constant ECRs
Summary
To reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in its first wave, European governments have implemented successive measures to encourage social distancing. To reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in its first wave (i.e., the period February to May in 2020), European governments have implemented several nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at reducing the number of contacts among individuals [1]. The implementation of these governmental measures differed per country, but they followed a similar pattern (Appendix A). Gathering was banned (Netherlands and Germany) or citizens were forced to stay home (United Kingdom (UK), Italy, Spain and Belgium) The latter intervention was often followed up by further restrictions, e.g. stricter surveillance by authorities. While in most countries these policies were applied to the entire nation, Italy and Spain started to apply these measures locally in the so-called ‘red zones’ (regions where the spread started)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
