How Could the Israel-Hamas Conflict Affect Ukraine?

Abstract

It has been almost two years since Russia launched its illegal, large-scale invasion of Ukraine—the second such incursion after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukraine currently finds itself in a protracted war of attrition, with a counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming territory in the South and East. However, it has encountered formidable obstacles presented by Russia’s network of fortifications and minefields. These challenges have been witnessed by the resilient Ukrainian people, who continue to face the complexities of wartime. Amid these difficulties, the international community has now been distracted by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Some analysts suggest that Russia could benefit from this regional conflict and that military and financial resources could be diverted from Ukraine to the Middle East. Recognizing the importance of unified support, there is a strong commitment by the US to consolidate assistance packages for both Ukraine and Israel, in order to mitigate potential logistical challenges. NATO has reaffirmed its commitment to providing support to Ukraine, underscoring its high priority. The EU has meanwhile become somewhat divided; in countries where populists are in government the Israel-Hamas conflict is being used as an excuse to reduce support for Ukraine, a tendency which previously existed clandestinely, due to lingering ties with Russia. The upcoming US elections also present a significant concern for Ukraine, as the political landscape has an impact on support and realignments.Regarding Ukraine’s economy, positive developments are evident in certain sectors. However, the state budget for the upcoming year relies heavily on international financial assistance to cover social expenditures and public sector expenses, since domestic revenue alone falls short of meeting critical needs. Anti-corruption efforts also depend on internal political will and expectation of becoming a member of the EU once the war has ended. In the meantime, Ukraine has taken steps to maximize its domestic defense production, further enhancing its self-reliance during these challenging times.