Abstract
Methods followed in earlier studies for estimating the sacrifice ratio or the real cost of deliberate disinflation have focused only on aggregate supply side ignoring aggregate demand. The present study considers the adjustment path obtained as a locus of short run equilibria to arrive at a theoretically acceptable sacrifice ratio. The study uses quarterly data from the period between 1996-97Q1–2013-14Q4 in India and employs both the regression as well as the direct methods to estimate the ratio. The results have revealed a sacrifice ratio ranging from 1.7 to 3.8 depending on the method and the measure of inflation used. Such a magnitude of the real cost of disinflation in India, also relevant in the medium to long run, clearly contradicts the dominant view among policymakers that the trade-off, if any, is negligible. Deliberate disinflation policy needs to consider the real cost of sacrificing output and employment particularly when its magnitude is substantial.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
