How contraflow enhances clearance time during assisted mass evacuation – A case study exploring the Australian 2013–14 Gippsland bushfires

Abstract

Evacuation during a catastrophic disaster is a crucial operation that needs to be appropriately managed and is of more importance when considering the elderly and people with disabilities. The uncertain and unpredictable nature of disasters can cause long-term repercussions, especially in traffic congestion. This study presents a mathematical model to formulate traffic balance for regular and assisted evacuation (that is, disabled and the elderly) whilst considering traffic congestion in evacuation clearance time by applying contraflow. A Branch and Price (B&P) related approach is developed to help solve the proposed model in large-size problems. The presented algorithm is applied to a case study of Australia’s 2013–14 bushfires in Gippsland, located in the eastern part of Victoria. A variation test is performed to evaluate the robustness of results generated by the developed model. Results indicate that the participation percentage of edges is different based on their location, capacity, and sustainability of blockage. The edges’ capacity influences the evacuated population most compared to route capacity and time window. The output of this approach enables authorities to improve the resilience of communities by making optimal strategic and operational decisions for enhancing an evacuation response as well as influencing appropriate policies.