How cold was the Little Ice Age? A proxy-based reconstruction from Finland applying modern analogues of fossil midge assemblages

Abstract

Climate dynamics during the past ca. 700 years in southern Finland were reconstructed using fossil midge (Diptera:Nematocera) assemblages aiming to estimate quantitatively the temperature change that has occurred from the Little Ice Age to the present. Midge stratigraphies of two sediment cores from eastern and southern Finland were chosen to be examined for temperature inferences utilizing the modern analogue technique. The new midge-based temperature inference model had a coefficient of determination of 0.901 and a prediction error of 0.498 °C, showing improvement over the previous Finnish models. The combined curve of the inferred temperatures derived from both of the cores showed a decrease towards ca. 1700 AD, when temperatures were approximately 1 °C cooler than the past 700 years average and almost 2 °C colder than present. The temperatures began to increase in southern Finland from 1800 AD and in eastern Finland from 1900 AD onwards. The highest temperatures were reached at the top of the core, representing the present climate warming. Although there was slight overestimation in the recent inferred values, the reconstructed trends were in close correspondence with the previous proxy-based, historical, and measured data that suggests that the reconstruction was realistic and reliable.