How Climate Change Affects Land Use Pattern: An Iranian Provincial Experience

Abstract

Climate change is exacerbating the challenges faced by the agriculture sector especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Climate change-induced increases in temperature, rainfall variation (both spatial and time) and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are adding to pressure on the global agriculture system—which is already struggling to respond to the rising demands of the growing population for food. This paper specifies a spatial econometric model to determine the major drivers of land use change, with emphasis on climate variables, in three bordering provinces of Iran during 2004–2016. Results indicate that changes in the usage of land and adaptation to climate change occur through time, but these changes have a major locative dependence on the nearby areas. In most of the regions under study, the increase in temperature exerts negative impacts on the proportion of lands devoted to grass and agriculture. Cropland value and farmer income have indirect and direct impact on the share of agricultural lands, respectively. Land slope is also indirectly related to urban and agricultural land allocation. Provision of more supports to farmers through direct payment and price support policies aiming at preserving of agricultural lands is recommended.