How Climate Change Affects Labor Mobility: Empirical Evidence from the CLDS

Abstract

ABSTRACT Regional climate conditions have become a key factor that is exacerbating the process of China’s labor spatial mobility. In contrast to previous research based on mixed cross-sectional data and floating population sample selection, this study uses unbalanced panel data from the China Labor Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) from 2014 to 2018 and a regional temperature dataset to examine the impact of climate change on inter-provincial and municipal labor mobility outflow from the perspective of local household registration, and further investigates regional reallocation and stock effects of labor related to climate change. The findings reveal four relevant results. First, after eliminating the influence bias of individual fixed effects, the labor force outflow effect of climate change across regions is significantly smaller than that found in previous research, at only one-fifth of existing research conclusions. Second, the mechanism analysis shows that temperature can affect labor mobility through individual health, happiness and government environmental regulation. Third, the impact of climate change on labor mobility has significant heterogeneity. Labor flows from underdeveloped regions to developed areas and from the central and western regions to the eastern region, and climate change has a greater impact for workers with higher education levels. In addition, climate change has a greater impact on workers with higher family incomes and family age structures. Fourth, the impact of climate change on labor mobility exhibits temperature-based threshold effects. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of climate change on labor mobility, offering valuable policy support for guiding the rational flow of labor and urban managers’ formulation of strategically targeted measures.