How cereal yield is influenced by eco-environmental factors? ARDL and spectral causality analysis for Turkey

Abstract

Food crop production and energy consumption scenarios through environmental factors are a critical concern for humanity. To this end, this study focuses on cereal yield in Turkey influenced by climate change, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and eco-environmental factors. The objective is finding evidence for an influence level of cereal yield through its determiners, which has not been effectively discussed in literature yet. To fill the gap, a time-series autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis and spectral causality relationships are conducted in the short-run, medium-run, and long-run. Data is collected annually by various institutions, from 1960 to 2019. The ARDL findings reveal that there is a cointegration between the variables and a long-run correlation between cereal yield and eco-environmental variables. While, energy consumption positively affects cereal yield, climate change has varying effects, and CO2 emissions negatively affect it. This study shows that environmental and economic factors in Turkey are critical for cereal yield. The Turkish government should encourage agriculture incentives for productive cereal supply. Increasing renewable energy consumption can be a powerful strategy in Turkey not only for increasing cereal yield but also for the negative influences of climate change. Therefore, the used economic model can serve an example for any countries.