How can Transportation Sector Achieve High-quality Carbon Peaking in China?

Abstract

Promoting the peak of carbon emissions in the transportation sector as soon as possible is the key to advancing carbon peaking process in China. This article combines the KAYA model, peak quality standards based on Tapio decoupling model, and international experience to predict the future trend of carbon emissions of transportation sector, and to analyze the path for the transportation sector to achieve high-quality peak in China. Research has found that: (1) Based on China's goals (by 2030, the proportion of oil and gas will decrease to 75%), it has been found that China's transportation sector may achieve carbon peak by 2032, with lower peak quality than developed countries such as Japan. (2) Based on international experience, stable GDP growth and technological progress are key to ensuring the quality of carbon peak in the transportation sector. (3) On the basis of reducing the share of oil and gas to 75% by 2030, if China further decreases the energy intensity of its transportation sector by 27% compared to 2018 levels (a 7% greater decrease than the target scenario), it is projected that China's transportation sector may achieve a high-quality carbon peak by 2030 and potentially match the peak quality level of France. This paper can provide theoretical support for promoting carbon emissions reduction and facilitating the peak in China's transportation sector.