Abstract
BackgroundDeaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination.MethodsWe describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year’s vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever.ResultsWe find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates.ConclusionsThese methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact; however it is vital that the area of impact estimation continues to develop in order to capture the full effect of immunisation.
Highlights
Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide
We describe the methods that have been implemented by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) to calculate the vaccination impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV)
Each method is used to address a specific point of interest, such as the number of lives saved by vaccination in a particular year, the number of individuals born in a particular year that will be saved due to vaccination, and the number of individuals that will be saved due to a particular year’s vaccination activities (YoV methods)
Summary
Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. Vaccination is one of the most effective interventions against infectious diseases and is estimated to prevent 2-3 million deaths annually, with an additional 1.5 million deaths that could be averted with improvements in global vaccination coverage [1]. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) [9] was established in 2016, formally bringing together several modelling groups and a secretariat with a history of working together to estimate the impact of vaccines against ten pathogens, namely, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), hepatitis B (HepB), human papillomavirus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (Meningitis A), rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever (YF). Estimating the impact of vaccination is important as this reveals the effectiveness of current global vaccination strategies and whether any changes are needed
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