How Can Risk-Averse and Risk-Taking Approaches be Considered in a Group Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Problem?

Abstract

We propose an alternative decision-making methodology based on adopting a mixed risk-averse and risk-taking behavior, improving the objectivity of decision-making. We demonstrate the methodology by prioritizing Iranian tourism centers’ activity under pandemic conditions, providing insights to policymakers on those to keep active or reduce the activity of – hence, those worth developing ahead of future disease outbreaks. This research follows a three-step methodology. First, criteria for evaluation are identified and categorized into tourist attractions, infrastructure, and healthcare dimensions. Second, criterion weights are calculated based on expert opinions, collected using a best-worst method-based questionnaire. Third, tourism centers are evaluated by employing risk-averse and risk-taking best-worst methods. We identify popular attractions, general services, and drugstore accessibility as the primary indicators of tourist attractions, infrastructure, and healthcare, respectively. By clustering tourism centers using K-means algorithm, we find that, in order, the cities of Semnan, Kerman and Zahedan are the tourism centers most suited to staying active during disease outbreaks. For multi-criteria decision-making problems that rely on experts’ evaluations, the proposed methodology can improve the reliability of decision-making. The methodology and framework presented can be used to support various types of decision-making, including evaluation, ranking, selection or sorting.