How can infectious medical waste be forecasted and transported during the COVID-19 pandemic? A hybrid two-stage method

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unforeseen collapse of infectious medical waste (IMW) and an abrupt smite of the conveying chain. Hospitals and related treatment centers face great challenges during the pandemic because mismanagement may lead to more severe life threats and enlarge environmental pollution. Opportune forecasting and transportation route optimization, therefore, are crucial to coping with social stress meritoriously. All related hospitals and medical waste treatment centers (MWTCs) should make decisions in perspective to reduce the economic pressure and infection risk immensely. This study proposes a hybrid dynamic method, as follows: first to forecast confirmed cases via infectious disease modeling and analyze the association between IMW outflows and cases; next to construct a model through time-varying factors and the lagging factor to predict the waste quantity; and then to optimize the transportation network route from hospitals to MWTCs. For demonstration intentions, the established methodology is employed to an illustrative example. Based on the obtained results, in finding the process of decision making, cost becomes the common concern of decision-makers. Actually, the infection risk among publics has to be considered simultaneously. Therefore, realizing early warning and safe waste management has an immensely positive effect on epidemic stabilization and lifetime health.