How can Chinese cities escape from carbon lock-in? The role of low-carbon city policy

Abstract

In this study, we critically analyze the effect of low-carbon city policy on carbon lock-in for Chinese cities, based on a balanced panel dataset of 283 Chinese prefectural cities between 2003 and 2017, as well as the difference-in-differences method. Several key findings are highlighted: (1) Low-carbon city policy exerts negative impact on carbon lock-in, which means that the policy successfully inhibits carbon lock-in. (2) The dynamic effect of low-carbon city policy is constant and becomes more prominent over time. (3) The impact of low-carbon city policy on carbon lock-in is heterogeneous and asymmetric. This policy is more effective in cities in the eastern regions, in cities where there is strong government administrative power, and where there is a high level of industry structure upgrading as well as technology innovation. (4) Low-carbon city policy indirectly influences carbon lock-in through environmental regulation, informatization, and human capital effects, which are three effective mediators. Several specific policy implications are put forward according to the above conclusions to overcome the reinforced carbon lock-in situation.