How can an agent-based model explore the impact of interventions on children's physical activity in an urban environment?

Jonatan Almagor,Paul Mccrorie,Rich Mitchell,Anne Martin

doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102688

Jonatan Almagor, Paul Mccrorie + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102688

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Abstract

Insufficient physical activity (PA) among most children and adolescents is a global problem that is undermining the realisation of numerous developmental and health benefits. The aim of this study was to explore the potential impact of interventions on PA by using an agent-based model (ABM) simulating children's daily activities in an urban environment. Three domains for interventions were explored: outdoor play, school physical education and active travel. Simulated interventions increased children's average daily moderate-to-vigorous PA by 2–13 min and reduced the percentage of children not meeting PA guidelines, from 34% to 10%–29%, depending on the intervention. Promotion of active travel and outdoor play benefited more those in a higher socio-economic position. Agents' interactions suggested that: encouraging activity in diverse groups will reduce percentage of the least active in the population; and initiating outdoor events in neighbourhoods can generate an enhancing effect on children's engagement in PA. The ABM provided measurable outcomes for interventions that are difficult to estimate using reductionist methods. We suggest that ABMs should be used more commonly to explore the complexity of the social-environmental PA system.

Highlights

Physical activity (PA) is associated with numerous developmental and health benefits in children and adolescents (Janssen and LeBlanc, 2010; Poitras et al, 2016; Booth et al, 2011, 2017)
The agent-based model (ABM) we developed demonstrated how children’s PA can be represented and explored as a complex system, where the influences and interactions of multiple levels are represented
We explored the potential impact of interventions in several activity domains including outdoor play, school PE, active travel and their combination, on increasing population moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA) levels and the percentage of agents meeting PA guidelines

Summary

Introduction

Physical activity (PA) is associated with numerous developmental and health benefits in children and adolescents (Janssen and LeBlanc, 2010; Poitras et al, 2016; Booth et al, 2011, 2017). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), children should accumulate at least 60 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA) daily. The more time children spend being physically active, the greater the health benefits. Gains are especially significant for those currently doing the lowest levels of activity, as the improvements in health per additional minute of physical activity will be proportionately greater (Foster et al, 2019). Identifying potential domains in children’s daily schedule where the ‘dose’ of PA can be manipulated using different types of interventions, which both increase PA levels overall and affect those least active, is a policy priority

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