How barley growing conditions and its output change in Hungary

Abstract

There is no doubt that climate change has started. It is very important to make effort in developing impact analyses and adaptation strategies. First we were investigated how the production risk of winter barley is changing with time using the E,V efficiency criterion. Based on the regional yearly production data of the crop, we can conclude that beside other non-climatic effects, the changing climate has considerable impact on crops yield; its variability is increasing with the variability of meteorological parameters. We have used production data from 1951 to nowadays. Next, using comparison analyses for climate scenarios, we predict what we can expect in the future. For detecting the reasons of risk increase in the past, and forecasting the potential main points of future risk we have analysed statistically whether the climate needs of winter barley will be satisfied or not in its important periods of growing. Frequency calculations were made based on the daily meteorological data. The situation doesn’t show big change, but It is no doubt that the anomalies of the indicators have been becoming more and more frequent. The more frequent the extreme weather events are, the more we can be convinced of uncertainty.