How backyard poultry flocks influence the effort required to curtail avian influenza epidemics in commercial poultry flocks

Abstract

This paper summarizes the evidence that the contribution of backyard poultry flocks to the on-going transmission dynamics of an avian influenza epidemic in commercial flocks is modest at best. Nevertheless, while disease control strategies need not involve the backyard flocks, an analysis of the contribution of each element of the next generation matrix to the basic reproduction number indicates that models which ignores the contribution of backyard flocks in estimating the effort required of strategies focused one host type (e.g. commercial flocks only) necessarily underestimate the level of effort to an extent that may matter to policy makers.