HOW AND WHY ZANU-PF WON THE 2013 ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

Abstract

1. Introduction In the March 2008 'harmonized' elections in Zimbabwe, (1) the Movement for Democratic Change (Tsvangirai) (MDC-T) scored the narrowest of victories over the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in the race for the House of Assembly, by 100 seats to 99, with the splinter Movement for Democratic Change (Mutumbara) (MDC-M) winning another 10 constituencies, with one more taken by an independent. (2) In the Presidential race, MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai outpaced incumbent Robert Mugabe, by officially taking 47.9 per cent of the poll compared to the latter's 43.2 per cent. However, the long delay of five weeks between the close of polls and the official announcement of the result implied strongly that the margin of difference between the two front-runners had actually been larger. Nonetheless, official denial that the challenger had won more than 50 per cent of the poll (plus one vote) meant that the two leading candidates were forced into a presidential run-off, and as is well known, the level of violence subsequently orchestrated by the ruling party was so great that Tsvangirai ultimately pulled out of the contest to save his supporters' skins. But now the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) decreed that his withdrawal had happened too late, and that the election would continue, and with MDC supporters cowed, Mugabe officially went on to record a 90.2 per cent victory. ZANU-PF had bludgeoned its way to a win in the election that really mattered (the executive long having subordinated the legislature to its will in Mugabe's Zimbabwe), and the scene was set for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to negotiate a Global Political Agreement (GPA), signed in September 2008, which installed a coalition government, with Tsvangirai serving as Prime Minister but Mugabe retaining the presidency. How different things were in 2013! The elections, held on 31 July, saw Mugabe trouncing Tsvangirai by 61.1 per cent to 33.9 per cent in the first round presidential poll. This was matched in the Assembly elections, ZANU-PF securing a landslide in the Assembly elections, winning 160 constituencies to the MDC-T's 49 (with a further seat won by an independent). In addition, ZANU-PF won 37 out of 60 extra seats which, with the promulgation of a new constitution in January 2013, were reserved for women, each of the country's ten provinces electing six candidates according to the proportion of the total votes won by parties' constituency candidates. Overall, therefore, in a National Assembly comprising 270 seats, ZANU-PF secured a total of 197, compared to 70 for the MDC-T, 2 for the MDC-M, and the one independent. Likewise, in the elections to the Senate, elected proportionately in the same way as proportional representation seats for women in the Assembly, ZANU-PF trounced the MDC by 37 to 21. In sum, this meant that ZANU-PF had won more than the two-thirds majority required for amending the recently agreed constitution. (3) ZANU-PF thereupon claimed that voters' had 'come home' to the party of liberation, and that Zimbabwe was back on course after the confusions and compromises of the GPA coalition period. Both wings of the MDC cried foul. Local monitoring groups, such as the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN), (as well as a report by the SADC lawyers' association) (4) supported them, their principal complaint being that ZANU-PF had grossly manipulated the voters' roll and had used its longstanding control of government to subvert the entire electoral machinery in order to secure its victory. Western commentators, including the United States (US) and the British government, together with the European Union (EU), largely agreed with them, although they had been officially barred from sending official monitoring and observer groups. However, despite stating that they had their reservations about the conduct of the poll, the observer groups sent by the African Union (AU) and SADC, declared the elections as credible and fair. …