How and why party position estimates from manifestos, expert, and party elite surveys diverge: A comparative analysis of the 'left-right' and the 'European integration' dimensions.

Alejandro Ecker,Marcelo Jenny,Wolfgang C Müller,Katrin Praprotnik

doi:10.1177/1354068821990298

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of three approaches to estimate party positions on the general left–right and EU dimensions. We newly introduce party elite data from the comprehensive IntUne survey and cross-validate it with existing expert survey and manifesto data. The general left–right estimates generated by elites and experts show a higher congruence than those derived from party manifestos; neither measure clearly materializes as more valid regarding EU positions. We identify which factors explain diverging estimates. For instance, disagreement among experts has greater impact than their mere number. The substantial centrist bias of the manifesto estimates persists even when alternative documents are used to substitute manifestos. Low response rates among elites have no systematic detrimental effect on the validity of party position estimates.

Highlights

Ever since Downs (1957) and Black (1958) disseminated the notion of spatial competition between political actors, scholars have been increasingly interested in estimating actors’ policy positions
We aim to narrow this research gap and our analyses make the following three contributions to the field: First, we present a relevant addition to the field by crossvalidating data from manifesto, expert, and elite studies that were generated at roughly the same time, and relied on largely identical question wordings in the surveys at both a left–right and European integration dimension
Do we find any systematic patterns that account for the extent to which expert placements and estimates derived from party manifestos differ from the self-placements of political elites? We explore potential differences by first regressing the elite estimates on the expert and (Euro) manifesto estimates respectively12 and use the absolute residuals as dependent variables to explore potential systematic differences

Summary

Introduction

Ever since Downs (1957) and Black (1958) disseminated the notion of spatial competition between political actors, scholars have been increasingly interested in estimating actors’ policy positions. Locating the positions of political parties on a given policy continuum is an essential precondition for testing much of today’s theories of party competition, government formation, and legislative decision-making. Bakker et al, 2015; Benoit and Laver, 2007; Hooghe et al, 2010; Keman, 2007; Marks et al, 2007; see Adams et al, 2019 on party policy shifts) Looking at these few exceptions in greater detail (for an overview see Online Appendix Tables A.1.–A.3.), reveals that they only consider two methods at the same time or compare position estimates derived from different question wordings, especially due to the lack of comparable elite data – the third generally recognized source for party placements (Laver, 2014)

Objectives

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Conclusion