How agricultural droughts are contributing to child undernutrition in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have some of the highest levels of child malnutrition, with more than one third of children under five in the region characterized as chronically undernourished. High reliance on subsistence farming, poor adoption of irrigation technologies and variable climate conditions make populations in SSA highly vulnerable to malnutrition during droughts. We use anthropometric data for 570,540 children under the age of five from 34 countries in SSA in combination with high resolution agricultural and climate data to estimate the association between agricultural droughts and child undernutrition in the region. We use global gridded data on the geographical distribution of crop areas for 19 major crops. Data on crop planting and harvesting dates are also collected for each crop. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi-scalar drought index, is used to measure the intensity and spatial distribution of droughts during key periods of agricultural production (planting, growth and harvesting) and of different duration (seasonal and long-lasting droughts). Our preliminary analysis shows that droughts during the main crop growing season are associated with increased risk of child undernutrition in SSA. As a next step, we will quantify the impact of droughts during the planting and harvesting seasons and for specific crops. We will additionally investigate whether droughts impact pastoral communities, for example through livestock loss. The findings presented in this study call for urgent action to improve drought monitoring and response in SSA where the risks to child health posed by global warming are considerable. Under climate change, the severity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events, including droughts, are projected to increase in the future, which will place millions of children at risk of hunger unless timely actions plans are taken to improve food security in the region. Key words: drought, undernutrition, agriculture, sub-Saharan Africa