Abstract
Population aging is discreetly reshaping the dynamics of social demand and labor supply, introducing potential turbulence to global carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of aging on carbon emissions is imperative for steering the next phase of sustainable development. This study, focusing on China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, delved into the intricacies of how population aging influences carbon emissions using a dynamic panel threshold model and a mediated effects model. Geographic heterogeneity within China was also considered. On the one hand, this study incorporated three consumer-side intermediation mechanisms: energy consumption, residential consumption and medical consumption. It was found that the positive driving effect of consumption-side variables on carbon emissions was characterized by an inverted “U”-shaped change in China’s highly aging regions, while an asymptotic upward trend of 7.65% was observed in regions with moderate and low aging. On the other hand, this study scrutinized three supply-side mediating mechanisms: industrial structure, R&D innovation and labor supply. The mechanism of supply-side variables on carbon emissions exhibited a shift from robustly positive driving to more nuanced weak positive driving or even negative inhibiting in highly aging regions, while inhibiting effects dominated in regions with moderate and low aging. This study offers a dual perspective encompassing both the production and consumption sides, which lays a foundation for exploring the internal mechanism of aging on carbon emission.
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