Abstract
Until printing was invented, texts were copied by hand. The probability with which changes were introduced during copying was affected by the kind of text and society. We cannot usually estimate the probability of change directly. Instead, we develop an indirect method. We derive a relationship between the number of manuscripts in the tradition and the mean number of copies separating a randomly chosen pair of manuscripts. Given the rate at which the proportion of words that are different increases with the mean number of copies separating two manuscripts, we can then estimate the probability of change. We illustrate our method with an analysis of Lydgate's medieval poem The Kings of England.
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