How a High Proportion of Candidates Becomes a Low Proportion of Députées: A New Model to Forecast Women's Electoral Performance in French Legislative Elections

Abstract

Since France introduced the ‘parity’ law, the percentage of women candidates has increased significantly while the percentage of women elected has trailed behind. This makes it hard for the electorate to know how women candidates will translate into women elected, or to judge which party is most likely to honour its commitments to parity. This is particularly the case as parties often field women in the most challenging seats. This paper introduces a model to forecast how many women would be elected to the National Assembly under a variety of potential electoral outcomes. Using the example of the 2007 elections, the paper demonstrates how the conversion of candidates to seats can be forecast prior to the election in order to give a clearer indication of party behaviour towards women, as well as illuminating what the outcome would have been under a left-wing victory.