Housing vacancy and urban growth: explaining changes in long-term vacancy after the US foreclosure crisis

Abstract

After the Great Recession, a historically high level of foreclosures resulted in an accumulation of vacant properties in the USA. However, much of our recent knowledge about vacant housing has focused only on shrinking cities. Using multivariate analyses with vacancy data derived from the US Postal Service, this study examines patterns and factors associated with changes in neighborhood-level, long-term vacancies in three types of metropolitan areas across the nation during the US housing recovery from 2011 to 2014. The findings suggest that neighborhood factors associated with changes in long-term vacant homes vary based on the growth trajectory of metropolitan statistical areas (metros): In weak-growth metros, larger increases in long-term vacancies tended to occur in depressed neighborhoods with high shares of African Americans and single-family home renters. In hard-hit metros, which were hit by a large decline in home values, increasing levels of long-term vacancies were prevalent in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty and higher shares of townhomes and condominiums. Finally, in strong-growth metros, increases in long-term vacancies tended to occur in outlying counties. When comparing one type of metropolitan area to another, researchers and policy makers must acknowledge the limitations of generalizing their findings. With a more thorough understanding of the variations in the neighborhood dynamics of the housing market, they will be more equipped to inform both housing policy and research.