Housing prices and family fertility decision-making in China: Effect and mechanism

Abstract

In our article, we conduct an empirical analysis utilizing a 5-year panel data sourced from the China Family Panel Studies. Our findings indicate that elevated housing price exert a significantly adverse influence on fertility decisions, with observed heterogeneity that is more pronounced among urban-dwelling families, those without property rights, those with existing children, and females aged between 31 and 40. Following the relaxation of the family planning policy, this negative effect becomes notably more pronounced. These conclusions remain robust with IV estimation. Considering the underlying mechanisms, the impact of high housing prices extends beyond a mere crowding-out effect on fertility through consumption. It also serves to motivate females to enhance their education, diminishes their self-identity, raises the cost of child-rearing, and exerts an inhibitory effect on marriage. Collectively, these factors further amplify the adverse impact of housing prices on the fertility rate.