Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic represents a combined supply and demand shock to the financial and housing market but also an unusual negative shock in terms of the health of society (households) and national economy. The fall in housing demand was initially assumed together with price decreases as a consequence of the uncertainty of the health of society, significant falls in stock markets and corporate solvency. However, the results of research in selected Polish cities do not indicate such a significant market recession. This article examines the housing price dynamics and forecasting in Polish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TRAMO/SEATS and ARIMA models were used for the decomposition and forecasting of dwelling time series. The Polish housing market, represented by selected local housing markets, still shows a growing trend despite the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020. The housing market may slow down in 2021, but the strong forecasted growth trends in Warszawa and Poznań suggest that there will be no significant price decline in Poland in the near future.
Highlights
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic which the world is currently facing
The TRAMO/Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series (SEATS), AUTO-ARIMA and ARIMA models were used in this study for the decomposition and forecasting of time series
incidental fluctuation (It) was expected that COVID-19 pandemic can be a stabilizer factor of the housing market and prices will decrease
Summary
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic which the world is currently facing. The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to the widely held view that the current pandemic impacts economies as a combined supply and demand shock [8,9,10] It seems that beyond the obvious areas for studying the impact of COVID-19, such as health, the state of small and large businesses, or the stability and instability of financial markets, it is an appropriate time for studies on its effects on housing markets [11, 12], which represent a safe investment zone in periods of financial market downturns. Housing is [21] a special type of commodity because is a spatially immobile, highly durable, costly, multidimensionally heterogeneous, and physically modifiable commodity These characteristics shape attitudes and behaviors towards housing and, in turn, influence neighbourhood characteristics, mortgage markets, national housing policies, and urban growth
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