HOUSING PRICE BUBBLES AND FACTORS AFFECTING THE FORMATION OF BUBBLES: THE TURKISH CASE

Abstract

Price bubbles may be a leading indicator for financial crises. In history, some of the important price bubble cases occurred in the real estate or housing market. In this study, the existence of a price bubbles, the periods of the existing bubbles, and the factors affecting the formation of bubbles in the housing sector for both Turkey and TR22 Region (Balıkesir-Çanakkale) are being investigated. Data covering 126 monthly housing price indices for the period between January 2010 and June 2020 were used. According to the SADF and GSADF test results, some evidence of housing bubbles for both Turkey and TR22 Region was reached. According to the results of the logit model applied in the study, the increase in the housing loan volume and the real estate interest rates as well as the decrease in the BIST-100 and M2 money supply, increase the probability of a housing price bubble for the TR22 Region. Additionally, the increase in the housing loan volume, real estate interest rates, BIST-100 and CPI as well as the decrease in the industrial production index, increase the probability of housing bubbles for Turkey. Considering those factors, the regulatory authorities in Turkey such as the BRSA and CBRT should take preventive measures to maintain price, financial and economic stability. In addition, those who invest in the housing sector should carefully monitor the existence and causes of price bubbles in this sector.